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Journal Article

Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation

Authors
/persons/resource/Falko.Ueckerdt

Ueckerdt,  Falko
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Bauer,  Christian
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/dirnaichner

Dirnaichner,  Alois
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/everall.jordan

Everall,  Jordan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Sacchi,  Romain
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer,  Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Fulltext (public)

25599_postprint.pdf
(Postprint), 5MB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Ueckerdt, F., Bauer, C., Dirnaichner, A., Everall, J., Sacchi, R., Luderer, G. (2021): Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation. - Nature Climate Change, 11, 5, 384-393.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01032-7


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25599
Abstract
E-fuels promise to replace fossil fuels with renewable electricity without the demand-side transformations required for a direct electrification. However, e-fuels’ versatility is counterbalanced by their fragile climate effectiveness, high costs and uncertain availability. E-fuel mitigation costs are €800–1,200 per tCO2. Large-scale deployment could reduce costs to €20–270 per tCO2 until 2050, yet it is unlikely that e-fuels will become cheap and abundant early enough. Neglecting demand-side transformations threatens to lock in a fossil-fuel dependency if e-fuels fall short of expectations. Sensible climate policy supports e-fuel deployment while hedging against the risk of their unavailability at large scale. Policies should be guided by a ‘merit order of end uses’ that prioritizes hydrogen and e-fuels for sectors that are inaccessible to direct electrification.