Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities

Mishra, Abhijeet; Humpenöder, Florian; Churkina, Galina; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Beier, Felicitas; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32244-w

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学術論文

Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities

Authors

/persons/resource/Abhijeet.Mishra

Mishra, Abhijeet
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/galina.churkina

Churkina, Galina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/felicitas.beier

Beier, Felicitas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/emdir

Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

URL

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6551229
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27505oa.pdf
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引用

Mishra, A., Humpenöder, F., Churkina, G., Reyer, C. P. O., Beier, F., Bodirsky, B. L., Schellnhuber, H. J., Lotze-Campen, H., & Popp, A. (2022). Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities. Nature Communications, 13:. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32244-w.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27505

要旨

Using engineered wood for construction has been discussed for climate change mitigation. It remains unclear where and in which way the additional demand for wooden construction material shall be fulfilled. Here we assess the global and regional impacts of increased demand for engineered wood on land use and associated CO2 emissions until 2100 using an open-source land system model. We show that if 90% of the new urban population would be housed in newly built urban mid-rise buildings with wooden constructions, 106 Gt of additional CO2 could be saved by 2100. Forest plantations would need to expand by up to 149 Mha by 2100 and harvests from unprotected natural forests would increase. Our results indicate that expansion of timber plantations for wooden buildings is possible without major repercussions on agricultural production. Strong governance and careful planning are required to ensure a sustainable transition to timber cities even if frontier forests and biodiversity hotspots are protected.