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Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events

Urheber*innen

van den Hurk,  Bart J.J.M.
External Organizations;

Pacchetti,  Marina Baldissera
External Organizations;

Boere,  Esther
External Organizations;

Ciullo,  Alessio
External Organizations;

Coulter,  Liese
External Organizations;

Dessai,  Suraje
External Organizations;

Ercin,  Ertug
External Organizations;

Goulart,  Henrique M.D.
External Organizations;

Hamed,  Raed
External Organizations;

Hochrainer-Stigler,  Stefan
External Organizations;

Koks,  Elco
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/patryk.kubiczek

Kubiczek,  Patryk
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Levermann

Levermann,  Anders
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Mechler,  Reinhard
External Organizations;

van Meersbergen,  Maarten
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Benedikt.Mester

Mester,  Benedikt
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Robin.Middelanis

Middelanis,  Robin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Minderhoud,  Katie
External Organizations;

Mysiak,  Jaroslav
External Organizations;

Nirandjan,  Sadhana
External Organizations;

van den Oord,  Gijs
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/christian.otto

Otto,  Christian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Sayers,  Paul
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe,  Jacob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Shepherd,  Theodore G.
External Organizations;

Sillmann,  Jana
External Organizations;

Stuparu,  Dana
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/thomas.vogt

Vogt,  Thomas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Witpas,  Katrien
External Organizations;

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Volltexte (frei zugänglich)

1-s2.0-S2212096323000268-main.pdf
(beliebiger Volltext), 4MB

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Zitation

van den Hurk, B. J., Pacchetti, M. B., Boere, E., Ciullo, A., Coulter, L., Dessai, S., Ercin, E., Goulart, H. M., Hamed, R., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Koks, E., Kubiczek, P., Levermann, A., Mechler, R., van Meersbergen, M., Mester, B., Middelanis, R., Minderhoud, K., Mysiak, J., Nirandjan, S., van den Oord, G., Otto, C., Sayers, P., Schewe, J., Shepherd, T. G., Sillmann, J., Stuparu, D., Vogt, T., Witpas, K. (2023): Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events. - Climate Risk Management, 40, 100500.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28844
Zusammenfassung
Modelling complex interactions involving climatic features, socio-economic vulnerability or responses, and long impact transmissions is associated with substantial uncertainty. Physical climate storylines are proposed as an approach to explore complex impact transmission pathways and possible alternative unfoldings of event cascades under future climate conditions. These storylines are particularly useful for climate risk assessment for complex domains, including event cascades crossing multiple disciplinary or geographical borders. For an effective role in climate risks assessments, development guidelines are needed to consistently develop and interpret the storyline event analyses. This paper elaborates on the suitability of physical climate storyline approaches involving climate event induced shocks propagating into societal impacts. It proposes a set of common elements to construct the event storylines. In addition, criteria for their application for climate risk assessment are given, referring to the need for storylines to be physically plausible, relevant for the specific context, and risk-informative. Apart from an illustrative gallery of storyline examples found in literature, three examples of varying scope and complexity are presented in detail, all involving the potential impact on European socio-economic sectors induced by remote climate change features occurring far outside the geographical domain of the European mainland. The storyline examples illustrate the application of the proposed storyline components and evaluate the suitability of the criteria defined in this paper. It thereby contributes to a rigorous design and application of event-based climate storyline approaches.