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Abstract

The latest generation of global climate models robustly projects that monsoon rainfall anomalies in India will significantly increase in the 21st century due to global warming. This raises the question of the impact of these changes on the agricultural yield. Based on annual district data for the years 1966-2014, we estimate the relationship between weather indices (amount of seasonal rainfall, number of wet days, average temperature) and the most widely grown kharif crops, including rice, in a flexible non-parametric way. We use the empirical relationship in order to predict district-specific crop yield based on the climate projections of eight evaluated state-of-the-art climate models under two global warming scenarios for the years 2021-2100. We find that the loss in rice yield by the end of the 21st century lies on average between 3 - 22% depending on the underlying emission scenario. For the sustainable scenario impacts range from an increase of 3.2% to a decrease of 12.1% for individual districts. In the worst-case scenario, all districts are negatively affected, with a predicted decrease in rice yield ranging from 34% to a decrease of 11.5% in the long run. Potential gains due to increasing rainfall are more than offset by the negative impacts of increasing temperature. Adaptation efforts in the worst-case global warming scenario would need to cut the negative impacts of temperature by 50% in order to reach the outcome of the sustainable scenario.