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Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere

Urheber*innen
/persons/resource/fenying.cai

Cai,  Fenying
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Liu,  Caihong
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Dieter.Gerten

Gerten,  Dieter
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Yang,  Song
External Organizations;

Zhang,  Tuantuan
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/kaiwen.li

Li,  Kaiwen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Juergen.Kurths

Kurths,  Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Externe Ressourcen

https://zenodo.org/records/13361912
(Ergänzendes Material)

Volltexte (frei zugänglich)

Cai_2024_s41467-024-52254-0.pdf
(Verlagsversion), 3MB

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Zitation

Cai, F., Liu, C., Gerten, D., Yang, S., Zhang, T., Li, K., Kurths, J. (2024): Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere. - Nature Communications, 15, 8012.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52254-0


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30207
Zusammenfassung
Pronounced spatial disparities in heatwave trends are bound up with a diversity of atmospheric signals with complex variations, including different phases and wavenumbers. However, assessing their relationships quantitatively remains a challenging problem. Here, we use a network-searching approach to identify the strengths of heatwave-related atmospheric teleconnections (AT) with ERA5 reanalysis data. This way, we quantify the close links between heatwave intensity and AT in the Northern Hemisphere. Approximately half of the interannual variability of heatwaves is explained and nearly 80% of the zonally asymmetric trend signs are estimated correctly by the AT changes in the mid-latitudes. We also uncover that the likelihood of extremely hot summers has increased sharply by a factor of 4.5 after 2000 over areas with enhanced AT, but remained almost unchanged over the areas with attenuated AT. Furthermore, reproducing Eastern European heatwave trends among various models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 largely depends on the simulated Eurasian AT changes, highlighting the potentially significant impact of AT shifts on the simulation and projection of heatwaves.