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Journal Article

Global spillover effects of the European Green Deal and plausible mitigation options

Authors

Zhong,  Honglin
External Organizations;

Li,  Yanxian
External Organizations;

Ding,  Jiaying
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/benedikt.bruckner

Bruckner,  Benedikt
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Feng,  Kuishuang
External Organizations;

Sun,  Laixiang
External Organizations;

Prell,  Christina
External Organizations;

Shan,  Yuli
External Organizations;

Hubacek,  Klaus
External Organizations;

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Fulltext (public)

30280oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 6MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Zhong, H., Li, Y., Ding, J., Bruckner, B., Feng, K., Sun, L., Prell, C., Shan, Y., Hubacek, K. (2024): Global spillover effects of the European Green Deal and plausible mitigation options. - Nature Sustainability, 7, 1501-1511.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01428-1


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30280
Abstract
Achieving European Green Deal (EGD) targets for carbon removal and ecological restoration would reduce agricultural and forestry production within the European Union yet simultaneously extend ecosystem impacts elsewhere. Here we quantify such spillover impacts by coupling an extended multi-regional input–output analysis with an agro-ecological zones model. We find that EGD’s agricultural and forestry targets set for 2030 could result in a 23.9 Mha increase in demand for agricultural land outside the European Union, which in turn would lead to an increase in land-use-related carbon emissions by 758.9 MtCO2-equivalent (244.8% of EGD’s carbon removal target in the land, land-use-change and forestry sectors) and a biodiversity loss of 3.86 million mean species abundance loss. Such spillover impacts far exceed the ecological benefits from EGD conservation-based import policies, such as promoting deforestation-free products and phasing out food-based biofuel. We then propose three options beyond the primary targets of the EGD with the aim to mitigate such spillover impacts. The assessment of these options reveals the critical role of reducing meat and dairy consumption, highlighting the impact of consumer behaviour on environmental outcomes. This raises questions about public awareness, willingness to change diets and the role of policy in influencing consumer behaviours.