Challenges to Viticulture in Montenegro under Climate Change

Fernandes , António; Kovač, Nataša; Fraga, Hélder; Fonseca, André; Šućur Radonjić, Sanja; Simeunović, Marko; Ratković, Kruna; Menz, Christoph; Costafreda-Aumedes, Sergi; Santos, João A.

doi:10.3390/ijgi13080270

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Journal Article

Challenges to Viticulture in Montenegro under Climate Change

Authors

Fernandes , António
External Organizations;

Kovač, Nataša
External Organizations;

Fraga, Hélder
External Organizations;

Fonseca, André
External Organizations;

Šućur Radonjić, Sanja
External Organizations;

Simeunović, Marko
External Organizations;

Ratković, Kruna
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Menz

Menz, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Costafreda-Aumedes, Sergi
External Organizations;

Santos, João A.
External Organizations;

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https://www.ecad.eu/download/ensembles/download.php
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ijgi-13-00270-v2.pdf
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Citation

Fernandes, A., Kovač, N., Fraga, H., Fonseca, A., Šućur Radonjić, S., Simeunović, M., Ratković, K., Menz, C., Costafreda-Aumedes, S., Santos, J. A. (2024): Challenges to Viticulture in Montenegro under Climate Change. - ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 13, 8, 270.
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi13080270

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30331

Abstract

The Montenegrin climate is characterised as very heterogeneous due to its complex topography. The viticultural heritage, dating back to before the Roman empire, is settled in a Mediterranean climate region, located south of the capital Podgorica, where climate conditions favour red wine production. However, an overall increase in warmer and drier periods affects traditional viticulture. The present study aims to discuss climate change impacts on Montenegrin viticulture. Bioclimatic indices, ensembled from five climate models, were analysed for both historical (1981–2010) and future (2041–2070) periods upon three socio-economic pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. CHELSA (≈1 km) was the selected dataset for this analysis. Obtained results for all scenarios have shown the suppression of baseline conditions for viticulture. The average summer temperature might reach around 29.5 °C, and the growing season average temperature could become higher than 23.5 °C, advancing phenological events. The Winkler index is estimated to range from 2900 °C up to 3100 °C, which is too hot for viticulture. Montenegrin viticulture requires the application of adaptation measures focused on reducing temperature-increase impacts. The implementation of adaptation measures shall start in the coming years, to assure the lasting productivity and sustainability of viticulture.