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Abstract

This study investigates spatiotemporal variability of residual soil moisture during the OND (October-November-Decem-
ber) season in Ethiopia and its implications for crop productivity. Employing advanced statistical techniques, we analyze
spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture across Ethiopia from 1981 to 2020, focusing on selected crops including
legumes: chickpea, field peas, common bean, soybean and alfalfa, to assess the potential of residual moisture to support
post-rainy season cropping. Results indicate pronounced east-west moisture gradients, with eastern regions of Ethiopia
exhibiting lower moisture levels (< 60 kg.m-2) compared to western regions (> 150 kg.m-2). The central highlands, which
are pivotal for agricultural activities, demonstrate significant variability in moisture (standard deviations > 25 kg.m-2), with
implications on agricultural sustainability. The northern and southeastern tips of the country are particularly vulnerable
to prolonged drought, where climate change and frequent dry spells exacerbate moisture deficits, consequently impacting
crop productivity. Despite these challenges, promising opportunities for future crop production emerge in the southeastern
region, which is characterized by increasing moisture trend over time (τ = 0.59). Findings further indicate that residual
moisture adequately meets and supports crop water requirements in the western, central, and southwestern Ethiopia. In
these regions, residual moisture supports more than 90% of cropland water requirements of various crops during the initial
and late-season growth stages, whereas water requirement coverage drops to less than 20% during the mid-season growth
stage. Therefore, by utilizing residual soil moisture alongside supplemental irrigation, Ethiopian farmers can meet crop
water needs for double cropping and enhance resilience to climate variability.