English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
Add to Basket
  Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Released
Journal Article

Limited Effect of Future Land‐Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor Capacity

Authors

De Hertog,  Steven J.
External Organizations;

Orlov,  Anton
External Organizations;

Havermann,  Felix
External Organizations;

Guo,  Suqi
External Organizations;

Manola,  Iris
External Organizations;

Pongratz,  Julia
External Organizations;

Lejeune,  Quentin
External Organizations;

Schleussner,  Carl-Friedrich
External Organizations;

Menke,  Inga
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder,  Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lawrence,  Peter
External Organizations;

Hurtt,  George C.
External Organizations;

Chini,  Louise
External Organizations;

Vanderkelen,  Inne
External Organizations;

Davin,  Edouard L.
External Organizations;

Reerink,  Thomas
External Organizations;

Seneviratne,  Sonia I.
External Organizations;

Verbeeck,  Hans
External Organizations;

Thiery,  Wim
External Organizations;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13852311
(Supplementary material)

Fulltext (public)
Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

De Hertog, S. J., Orlov, A., Havermann, F., Guo, S., Manola, I., Pongratz, J., Lejeune, Q., Schleussner, C.-F., Menke, I., Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Lawrence, P., Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L., Vanderkelen, I., Davin, E. L., Reerink, T., Seneviratne, S. I., Verbeeck, H., Thiery, W. (2025): Limited Effect of Future Land‐Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor Capacity. - Earth's Future, 13, 1, e2024EF005021.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005021


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_31784
Abstract
To achieve the 1.5°C target of the Paris agreement, rapid, sustained, and deep emission reductions are required, which often includes negative emissions through land-based mitigation. However, the effects of future land-use change on climate are often not considered when quantifying the climate-induced impacts on human heat stress and labor capacity. By conducting simulations with three fully coupled Earth System Models, we project the effects of land-use change on heat stress and outdoor labor capacity for two contrasting future land-use scenarios under high-ambition mitigation. Achieving a sustainable land-use scenario with increasing global forest cover instead of an inequality scenario with decreasing forest cover in the Global South causes a global cooling ranging between 0.09°C and 0.35°C across the Earth System Models. However, the effects on human heat stress are less strong, especially over the regions of intense land-use change such as the tropics, where biogeophysical effects on near-surface specific humidity and wind speed counteract the cooling effect under warm extremes. The corresponding influence on outdoor labor capacity is small and inconsistent across the three Earth System Models. These results clearly highlight the importance of land-use change scenarios for achieving global temperature targets while questioning the adaptation potential for reduction in heat stress.