Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport 
emissions to 2050

van Heerden, Rik; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Daioglou, Vassilis; Le Gallic, Thomas; Baptista, Luiz Bernardo; Di Bella, Alice; Colelli, Francesco Pietro; Emmerling, Johannes; Fragkos, Panagiotis; Hasse, Robin; Hoppe, Johanna; Kishimoto, Paul; Leblanc, Florian; Lefèvre, Julien; Luderer, Gunnar; Marangoni, Giacomo; Mastrucci, Alessio; Pettifor, Hazel; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Rochedo, Pedro; van Ruijven, Bas; Schaeffer, Roberto; Wilson, Charlie; Yeh, Sonia; Zisarou, Eleftheria; van Vuuren, Detlef

doi:10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1

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Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050

Authors

van Heerden, Rik
External Organizations;

Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.
External Organizations;

Daioglou, Vassilis
External Organizations;

Le Gallic, Thomas
External Organizations;

Baptista, Luiz Bernardo
External Organizations;

Di Bella, Alice
External Organizations;

Colelli, Francesco Pietro
External Organizations;

Emmerling, Johannes
External Organizations;

Fragkos, Panagiotis
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/robin.krekeler

Hasse, Robin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Johanna.Hoppe

Hoppe, Johanna
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Kishimoto, Paul
External Organizations;

Leblanc, Florian
External Organizations;

Lefèvre, Julien
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Marangoni, Giacomo
External Organizations;

Mastrucci, Alessio
External Organizations;

Pettifor, Hazel
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Robert.Pietzcker

Pietzcker, Robert C.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rochedo, Pedro
External Organizations;

van Ruijven, Bas
External Organizations;

Schaeffer, Roberto
External Organizations;

Wilson, Charlie
External Organizations;

Yeh, Sonia
External Organizations;

Zisarou, Eleftheria
External Organizations;

van Vuuren, Detlef
External Organizations;

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https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/navigate
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s41560-025-01703-1.pdf
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Citation

van Heerden, R., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Daioglou, V., Le Gallic, T., Baptista, L. B., Di Bella, A., Colelli, F. P., Emmerling, J., Fragkos, P., Hasse, R., Hoppe, J., Kishimoto, P., Leblanc, F., Lefèvre, J., Luderer, G., Marangoni, G., Mastrucci, A., Pettifor, H., Pietzcker, R. C., Rochedo, P., van Ruijven, B., Schaeffer, R., Wilson, C., Yeh, S., Zisarou, E., van Vuuren, D. (2025 online): Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050. - Nature Energy.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_31856

Abstract

Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.