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Journal Article

Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits

Authors

Hadjikakou,  Michalis
External Organizations;

Bowles,  Nicholas
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Geyik,  Özge
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Conijn,  Sjaak
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Mogollon,  Jose
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/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky,  Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Muller,  Adrian
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/persons/resource/Isabelle.Weindl

Weindl,  Isabelle
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Moallemi,  Enayat
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Shaikh Shaikh,  Abdullah
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Damerau,  Kerstin
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Davis,  Kyle F
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Pfister,  Stephan
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Springmann,  Marco
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Clark,  Michael
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Metson,  Genevieve
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Röös,  Elin
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Bajzelj,  Bojana
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Graham,  Neal T
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Wisser,  Dominik
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Doelman,  Jonathan C
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Deppermann,  Andre
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Theurl,  Michaela
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/persons/resource/prajal.pradhan

Pradhan,  Prajal
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/stevanovic

Stevanović,  Miodrag
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lauk,  Christian
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Chang,  Jinfeng
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Heck,  Vera
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Ercin,  Ertug
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Peng,  Liqing
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Springer,  Nathaniel
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Bouwman,  Lex
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Morais,  Tiago
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Valin,  Hugo
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Mason-D'Croz ,  Daniel
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Erb,  Karlheinz
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/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Herrero,  Mario
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Dumas,  Patrice
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Zhang,  Xin
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Bryan,  Brett

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Citation

Hadjikakou, M., Bowles, N., Geyik, Ö., Conijn, S., Mogollon, J., Bodirsky, B. L., Muller, A., Weindl, I., Moallemi, E., Shaikh Shaikh, A., Damerau, K., Davis, K. F., Pfister, S., Springmann, M., Clark, M., Metson, G., Röös, E., Bajzelj, B., Graham, N. T., Wisser, D., Doelman, J. C., Deppermann, A., Theurl, M., Pradhan, P., Stevanović, M., Lauk, C., Chang, J., Heck, V., Ercin, E., Peng, L., Springer, N., Bouwman, L., Morais, T., Valin, H., Mason-D'Croz, D., Erb, K., Popp, A., Herrero, M., Dumas, P., Zhang, X., Bryan, B. (2025 online): Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits. - One Earth.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101351


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32238
Abstract
Transforming the global food system is necessary to avoid exceeding the Earth’s
environmental limits. A robust evidence base is crucial to assess the scale and
combination of interventions required for a sustainable transformation. We developed a
risk assessment framework, underpinned by an evidence synthesis of global food
system modelling studies, to quantify the potential of individual and combined
interventions to mitigate the risk of exceeding global environmental limits for
agricultural area, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, surface water flows, and nutrient
cycles by 2050. GHG emissions and nutrient cycles are the most difficult thresholds to
avoid exceeding, and are conditional on shifts towards diets with a low proportion of
animal-source foods, steep reductions in emissions intensity, substantial improvements
in nutrient management, feed conversion ratios and crop yields, and efforts to limit
overconsumption and food waste. Ambitious actions across the global food system are
required to ensure the required level of risk mitigation.