Disentangling uncertainty in ISMIP6 Antarctic sub-shelf melting and 2300 sea 
level rise projections

Beckmann, Johanna; Reese, Ronja; McCormack, Felicity S.; Cook, Sue; Bird, Lawrence; Gwyther, David; Richards, Daniel; Scheiters, Matthias; Wang, Yu; Seroussi, Hélène; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albrecht, Torsten; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Asay-Davis, Xylar S.; Barre, Jean-Baptiste; Berends, Constantijn J.; Bernales, Jorge; Blasco, Javier; Caillet, Justine; Chandler, David M.; Coulon, Violaine; Cullather, Richard; Dumas, Christophe; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.; Garbe, Julius; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Gladstone, Julius; Goelzer, Heiko; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Greve, Ralf; Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar; Kyeore Han, Holly; Hillebrand, Trevor R.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Huybrechts, Philippe; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Klose, Ann Kristin; Langebroek, Petra M.; Leguy, Gunter R.; Lipscomb, William H.; Lowry, Daniel P.; Mathiot, Pierre; Montoya, Marisa; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nowicki, Sophie; Pattyn, Frank; Payne, Antony J.; Pelle, Tyler; Quiquet, Aurélien; Robinson, Alexander; Saraste, Leopekka; Simon, Erika G.; Sun, Sainan; Twarog, Jake P.; Trusel, Luke T.; Urruty, Benoit; Van Breedam, Jonas; Van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Zhao, Chen; Zwinger, Thomas

doi:10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069

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Disentangling uncertainty in ISMIP6 Antarctic sub-shelf melting and 2300 sea level rise projections

Urheber*innen

Beckmann, Johanna
External Organizations;

Reese, Ronja
External Organizations;

McCormack, Felicity S.
External Organizations;

Cook, Sue
External Organizations;

Bird, Lawrence
External Organizations;

Gwyther, David
External Organizations;

Richards, Daniel
External Organizations;

Scheiters, Matthias
External Organizations;

Wang, Yu
External Organizations;

Seroussi, Hélène
External Organizations;

Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Torsten.Albrecht

Albrecht, Torsten
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Alvarez-Solas, Jorge
External Organizations;

Asay-Davis, Xylar S.
External Organizations;

Barre, Jean-Baptiste
External Organizations;

Berends, Constantijn J.
External Organizations;

Bernales, Jorge
External Organizations;

Blasco, Javier
External Organizations;

Caillet, Justine
External Organizations;

Chandler, David M.
External Organizations;

Coulon, Violaine
External Organizations;

Cullather, Richard
External Organizations;

Dumas, Christophe
External Organizations;

Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/julius.garbe

Garbe, Julius
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien
External Organizations;

Gladstone, Julius
External Organizations;

Goelzer, Heiko
External Organizations;

Golledge, Nicholas R.
External Organizations;

Greve, Ralf
External Organizations;

Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar
External Organizations;

Kyeore Han, Holly
External Organizations;

Hillebrand, Trevor R.
External Organizations;

Hoffman, Matthew J.
External Organizations;

Huybrechts, Philippe
External Organizations;

Jourdain, Nicolas C.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/klose.ann.kristin

Klose, Ann Kristin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Langebroek, Petra M.
External Organizations;

Leguy, Gunter R.
External Organizations;

Lipscomb, William H.
External Organizations;

Lowry, Daniel P.
External Organizations;

Mathiot, Pierre
External Organizations;

Montoya, Marisa
External Organizations;

Morlighem, Mathieu
External Organizations;

Nowicki, Sophie
External Organizations;

Pattyn, Frank
External Organizations;

Payne, Antony J.
External Organizations;

Pelle, Tyler
External Organizations;

Quiquet, Aurélien
External Organizations;

Robinson, Alexander
External Organizations;

Saraste, Leopekka
External Organizations;

Simon, Erika G.
External Organizations;

Sun, Sainan
External Organizations;

Twarog, Jake P.
External Organizations;

Trusel, Luke T.
External Organizations;

Urruty, Benoit
External Organizations;

Van Breedam, Jonas
External Organizations;

Van de Wal, Roderik S. W.
External Organizations;

Zhao, Chen
External Organizations;

Zwinger, Thomas
External Organizations;

Externe Ressourcen

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10528581
(Forschungsdaten)

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13135570
(Forschungsdaten)

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13135598
(Forschungsdaten)

https://theghub.org/dataset-listing
(Forschungsdaten)

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egusphere-2025-4069.pdf
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Zitation

Beckmann, J., Reese, R., McCormack, F. S., Cook, S., Bird, L., Gwyther, D., Richards, D., Scheiters, M., Wang, Y., Seroussi, H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Alvarez-Solas, J., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barre, J.-B., Berends, C. J., Bernales, J., Blasco, J., Caillet, J., Chandler, D. M., Coulon, V., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Garbe, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gladstone, J., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Kyeore Han, H., Hillebrand, T. R., Hoffman, M. J., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Klose, A. K., Langebroek, P. M., Leguy, G. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Lowry, D. P., Mathiot, P., Montoya, M., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Pelle, T., Quiquet, A., Robinson, A., Saraste, L., Simon, E. G., Sun, S., Twarog, J. P., Trusel, L. T., Urruty, B., Van Breedam, J., Van de Wal, R. S. W., Zhao, C., Zwinger, T. (submitted): Disentangling uncertainty in ISMIP6 Antarctic sub-shelf melting and 2300 sea level rise projections.

Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33058

Zusammenfassung

Ocean-driven ice shelf melting is a major contributor of present and future ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) Antarctic 2300 projections, sea level rise varies widely, from -0.6 to 4.4 m, highlighting significant uncertainty. Here, we assess drivers of this spread, focussing on sub-shelf melting and dynamic ice loss as well as sectors that have the potential for large-scale, rapid ice loss: the Amundsen Sea, Filchner-Ronne, and Ross sectors, and the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins. We derive two sensitivity factors for each ISMIP6 simulation: a) a melt sensitivity factor, describing how simulated sub-shelf melt rates respond to ocean thermal forcing changes; and b) a dynamic ice loss sensitivity factor, describing how simulated dynamic ice loss (and hence sea level contribution) responds to cumulative sub-shelf melt changes. Melt sensitivities range from 1.5–21.3 ma−1 K−1, with no clear dependency on the melt parameterisation. Model simulations cluster into two groups based on calving strength. The dynamic ice loss sensitivities range from 0.1 to 2.6 (unitless), with larger variations in the Amundsen sector, and Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins. These sensitivity factors are good predictors of short-term integrated melting and sea level rise, respectively, but are less robust on longer time scales. Our findings show that these factors explain much of the ensemble spread in projected ice loss to 2300. We recommend to further constrain these factors, and advocate for their use in model calibration and emulator design, with the ultimate aim of explaining uncertainties in future projections of sea level rise from Antarctica.