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Abstract

Countries must sharply reduce emissions and scale up carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, but the role of CDR in current pledges remains limited and lacks credibility. Only three G20 members submitted a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by the February 2025 deadline. Less than half submitted one by the end of September 2025. As it stands, only eight provide enough information to judge the contribution of CDR to meeting their targets. Even fewer parties have taken actions to make these pledges credible, namely by setting net zero emissions targets into law, implementing CDR policies and measures, and comprehensively planning for scaling up CDR. Without more transparency and credible commitments, it remains highly uncertain whether parties plan to support CDR and if these plans are sufficient to put the world on track for scaling it by the mid-century