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The Geopolitical Externality of Climate Policy

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/persons/resource/timothe.beaufils

Beaufils,  Timothé       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/kilian.Conyngham

Conyngham,  Kilian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/marlene.devries

de Vries,  Marlene
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Jakob,  Michael
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/kalkuhl

Kalkuhl,  Matthias       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Richter,  Philipp M.
External Organizations;

Spiro,  Daniel
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Lennart.Stern

Stern,  Lennart
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Wanner,  Joschka
External Organizations;

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Beaufils, T., Conyngham, K., de Vries, M., Jakob, M., Kalkuhl, M., Richter, P. M., Spiro, D., Stern, L., Wanner, J. (2025): The Geopolitical Externality of Climate Policy, (Kiel Working Paper ; 2283), Kiel : Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 34 p.


???ViewItemOverview_lblCiteAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33905
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This paper formalizes the geopolitical externality of climate policy and estimates its plausible magnitudes. Specifically, domestic reductions in fossil fuel demand depress global prices, thereby lowering export revenues for resource-rich autocracies – many of which allocate substantial resources to military spending. As a result, climate policy reduces geopolitical and security burdens on Western democracies, offering a “peace dividend” as a co-benefit. Using the European Union’s oil consumption and its support to Ukraine as a case study, we highlight the relevance of this externality. We estimate that each euro spent on oil in the EU generates geopolitical costs of 0.37 [0.01 - 4.7] euros related to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Based on our central estimate, a carbon price of 62 euros per ton of CO2 would be required to internalize these costs. Even under conservative assumptions, our analysis highlights that the geopolitical externality offers a compelling argument for strong unilateral efforts to reduce fossil fuel demand in the EU.