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The challenge with climate-energy-economy models in constructing fair and equitable climate futures

Urheber*innen

Nikas,  Alexandros
External Organizations;

Sampedro,  Jon
External Organizations;

Khourdajie,  Alaa Al
External Organizations;

Arto,  Iñaki
External Organizations;

Balderrama,  Sergio
External Organizations;

Boasson,  Elin Lerum
External Organizations;

Cartwright,  Anton
External Organizations;

Feijoo,  Felipe
External Organizations;

Fragkos,  Panagiotis
External Organizations;

Frilingou,  Natasha
External Organizations;

García-Muros,  Xaquin
External Organizations;

Herbig,  Victoria
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Karamaneas,  Anastasios
External Organizations;

Koasidis,  Konstantinos
External Organizations;

Ma,  Lin
External Organizations;

Mittal,  Shivika
External Organizations;

Moleskis,  Melina
External Organizations;

Nikolakakis,  Thomas
External Organizations;

Pathak,  Minal
External Organizations;

Peters,  Glen P.
External Organizations;

Platias,  Charalampos
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Robert.Pietzcker

Pietzcker,  Robert C.       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Raihan,  Selim
External Organizations;

Rodés-Bachs,  Clàudia
External Organizations;

Rogelj,  Joeri
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Śniegocki,  Aleksander
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Sognnæs,  Ida
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Solomou,  Pantelis
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Spatharidou,  Dimitra
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Taliotis,  Constantinos
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Tigka,  Christina
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Tomás,  Manuel
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Trachanas,  Georgios P.
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Tsipouridis,  Ioannis
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van de Ven,  Dirk-Jan
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Vienni-Baptista,  Bianca
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Zachariadis,  Theodoros
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Arnokourou,  Athanasia
External Organizations;

Makri,  Evi
External Organizations;

Gambhir,  Ajay
External Organizations;

Kratena,  Kurt
External Organizations;

Xexakis,  Georgios
External Organizations;

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1-s2.0-S0016328726000923-main.pdf
(Verlagsversion), 733KB

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Zitation

Nikas, A., Sampedro, J., Khourdajie, A. A., Arto, I., Balderrama, S., Boasson, E. L., Cartwright, A., Feijoo, F., Fragkos, P., Frilingou, N., García-Muros, X., Herbig, V., Karamaneas, A., Koasidis, K., Ma, L., Mittal, S., Moleskis, M., Nikolakakis, T., Pathak, M., Peters, G. P., Platias, C., Pietzcker, R. C., Raihan, S., Rodés-Bachs, C., Rogelj, J., Śniegocki, A., Sognnæs, I., Solomou, P., Spatharidou, D., Taliotis, C., Tigka, C., Tomás, M., Trachanas, G. P., Tsipouridis, I., van de Ven, D.-J., Vienni-Baptista, B., Zachariadis, T., Arnokourou, A., Makri, E., Gambhir, A., Kratena, K., Xexakis, G. (2026): The challenge with climate-energy-economy models in constructing fair and equitable climate futures. - Futures, 181, 103850.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2026.103850


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34439
Zusammenfassung
Climate change and policy are unevenly experienced across nations, social groups, households, sectors, and generations. Understanding how benefits and burdens of climate action can be equitably shared is therefore critical. While the cornerstone concept of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ is broadly accepted, the absence of consensus on equitable effort-sharing principles presents a challenge that permeates science underpinning climate policy. Climate-energy-economy models exhibit considerable conceptual, structural, and technical limitations in constructing equitable climate futures: they aggregate diverse Global South countries into homogeneous regions, fail to capture critical elements of international climate finance, and tend to produce one-size-fits-all strategies with limited consideration of local contexts. Model-based studies, additionally, have been argued to reflect Global North narratives in international scenario ensembles, assume persisting inequalities between the Global North and the Global South in the future, obscure ethical or normative choices behind operationalised principles of justice, and fail to systematically include stakeholders and scientists from the Global South. Here, we explore how modelling science can be more inclusive and effective in recognising these issues and co-constructing just climate futures. While acknowledging the inherent limitations of any modelling exercise, we argue that progress depends on several key actions, including meaningfully collaborating with stakeholders and scientists from other disciplines and critically from hitherto underrepresented and underfunded regions, incorporating wider policy priorities beyond mitigation, improving data and modelling capabilities to better represent the varied conditions of different communities, and integrating elements, policies, and governance structures that are indispensable to representing climate finance considerations.