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Climate risks for the European food system and policy preparedness

Authors
/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller,  Christoph       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Dentener,  Frank
External Organizations;

Vanuytrecht,  Eline
External Organizations;

Robinson,  Elizabeth J.Z.
External Organizations;

van den Berg,  Maurits
External Organizations;

Toreti,  Andrea
External Organizations;

Maetens,  Willem
External Organizations;

Dasgupta,  Shouro
External Organizations;

Lager,  Frida
External Organizations;

Catarino,  Rui
External Organizations;

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Citation

Müller, C., Dentener, F., Vanuytrecht, E., Robinson, E. J., van den Berg, M., Toreti, A., Maetens, W., Dasgupta, S., Lager, F., Catarino, R. (2026 online): Climate risks for the European food system and policy preparedness. - Global Food Security, 100937.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2026.100937


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34870
Abstract
Climate change increases the risk of disruptions across European food systems, including the productivity of crops, livestock, and fisheries, as well as the stability of global trade and markets. These risks propagate through food storage, processing, distribution, and ultimately access to safe and nutritious food, with socio-economic factors determining household vulnerability. The risk of climate impacts to European food systems is subject to uncertainties due to the complex interactions between climatic, ecological, and economic drivers, and the potential for simultaneous stressors both within Europe and globally. Strengthening resilience requires integrated adaptation strategies across production, supply chains, trade, and social protection, coupled with governance approaches that address systemic risks, promote sustainability, and ensure equitable access. Current EU policies address many relevant aspects, but lack coherence and ambition. While adaptation options exist for various climate risks, gaps remain in managing climate risks to food processing, transport, retail, and social vulnerability, highlighting the need for coordinated, forward-looking risk management and for developing strategies for transformative adaptation across the food system.