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  Quantifying the human cost of global warming

Lenton, T. M., Xu, C., Abrams, J. F., Ghadiali, A., Loriani, S., Sakschewski, B., Zimm, C., Ebi, K. L., Dunn, R. R., Svenning, J.-C., Scheffer, M. (2023 online): Quantifying the human cost of global warming. - Nature Sustainability.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6

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 Creators:
Lenton, Timothy M.1, Author
Xu, Chi1, Author
Abrams, Jesse F.1, Author
Ghadiali, Ashish1, Author
Loriani, Sina2, Author              
Sakschewski, Boris2, Author              
Zimm, Caroline1, Author
Ebi, Kristie L.1, Author
Dunn, Robert R.1, Author
Svenning, Jens-Christian1, Author
Scheffer, Marten1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’—defined as the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that climate change has already put ~9% of people (>600 million) outside this niche. By end-of-century (2080–2100), current policies leading to around 2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22–39%) of people outside the niche. Reducing global warming from 2.7 to 1.5 °C results in a ~5-fold decrease in the population exposed to unprecedented heat (mean annual temperature ≥29 °C). The lifetime emissions of ~3.5 global average citizens today (or ~1.2 average US citizens) expose one future person to unprecedented heat by end-of-century. That person comes from a place where emissions today are around half of the global average. These results highlight the need for more decisive policy action to limit the human costs and inequities of climate change.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-07-252023-05-012023-05-22
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Inequality and Equity
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
MDB-ID: pending
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Sustainability
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-sustainability
Publisher: Springer Nature