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  Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability

Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Jansen, R. E. V., Avila Ortega, D. I., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Donges, J. F., Österblom, H., Olsson, P., Nyström, M., Lade, S. J., Hahn, T., Folke, C., Peterson, G. D., Crépin, A.-S. (2024): Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability. - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences, 379, 1893, 20220261.
https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0261

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søgaard-jørgensen-et-al-2023-evolution-of-the-polycrisis-anthropocene-traps-that-challenge-global-sustainability.pdf (Verlagsversion), 718KB
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Søgaard Jørgensen, Peter1, Autor
Jansen, Raf E. V.1, Autor
Avila Ortega, Daniel I.1, Autor
Wang-Erlandsson, Lan2, Autor              
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann2, Autor              
Österblom, Henrik1, Autor
Olsson, Per1, Autor
Nyström, Magnus1, Autor
Lade, Steven J.1, Autor
Hahn, Thomas1, Autor
Folke, Carl1, Autor
Peterson, Garry D.1, Autor
Crépin, Anne-Sophie1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2023-11-012023-11-132024-01-01
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 17
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0261
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Health
Research topic keyword: Inequality and Equity
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Research topic keyword: Policy Advice
Research topic keyword: Security & Migration
Research topic keyword: Sustainable Development
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Qualitative Methods
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 379 (1893) Artikelnummer: 20220261 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals384
Publisher: The Royal Society