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  Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events

Faranda, D., Messori, G., Alberti, T., Alvarez-Castro, C., Caby, T., Cavicchia, L., Coppola, E., Donner, R. V., Dubrulle, B., Galfi, V. M., Holmberg, E., Lembo, V., Noyelle, R., Yiou, P., Spagnolo, B., Valenti, D., Vaienti, S., Wormell, C. (2024): Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events. - Physical Review E, 110, 041001.
https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001

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Faranda, D.1, Autor
Messori, G.1, Autor
Alberti, T.1, Autor
Alvarez-Castro, C.1, Autor
Caby, T.1, Autor
Cavicchia, L.1, Autor
Coppola, E.1, Autor
Donner, Reik V.2, Autor              
Dubrulle, B.1, Autor
Galfi, V. M.1, Autor
Holmberg, E.1, Autor
Lembo, V.1, Autor
Noyelle, R.1, Autor
Yiou, P.1, Autor
Spagnolo, B.1, Autor
Valenti, D.1, Autor
Vaienti, S.1, Autor
Wormell, C.1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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Schlagwörter: Climate research Convection Global warming Stochastic processes Turbulence Dynamical systems Extreme event statistics Large deviation & rare event statistics
 Zusammenfassung: Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms, and many others. Despite the intrinsic differences between these events, they all originate as temporary deviations from the typical trajectories of a geophysical system, resulting in well-organized, coherent structures at characteristic spatial and temporal scales. While statistical extreme value analysis techniques are capable of providing return times and probabilities of occurrence of certain geophysical events, they are not apt to account for their underlying physics. Their focus is to compute the probability of occurrence of events that are large or small with respect to some specific observable (e.g., temperature, precipitation, solar wind), rather than to relate rare or extreme phenomena to the underlying anomalous geophysical regimes. This paper outlines this knowledge gap, presenting some related challenges, new formalisms and briefly commenting on how stochastic approaches tailored to the study of extreme geophysical events can help to advance their understanding.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2024-10-042024-10-04
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 33
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Research topic keyword: Extremes
MDB-ID: pending
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Physical Review E
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 110 Artikelnummer: 041001 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150218
Publisher: American Physical Society (APS)