English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
 
 
DownloadE-Mail
  Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study

Hattermann, F. F., Vetter, T., Breuer, L., Su, B., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., Fekete, B., Flörke, F., Gosling, S. N., Hoffmann, P., Liersch, S., Masaki, Y., Motovilov, Y., Müller, C., Samaniego, L., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., Yang, T., Krysanova, V. (2018): Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study. - Environmental Research Letters, 13, 1, 015006.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9938

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
7817oa.pdf (Publisher version), 5MB
Name:
7817oa.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Hattermann, Fred Fokko1, Author              
Vetter, Tobias1, Author              
Breuer, L.2, Author
Su, B.2, Author
Daggupati, P.2, Author
Donnelly, C.2, Author
Fekete, B.2, Author
Flörke, F.2, Author
Gosling, S. N.2, Author
Hoffmann, Peter1, Author              
Liersch, Stefan1, Author              
Masaki, Y.2, Author
Motovilov, Y.2, Author
Müller, Christoph1, Author              
Samaniego, L.2, Author
Stacke, T.2, Author
Wada, Y.2, Author
Yang, T.2, Author
Krysanova, Valentina1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.

Details

show
hide
Language(s):
 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9938
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7817
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 13 (1) Sequence Number: 015006 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326