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  Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Möller, T., Högner, A. E., Schleussner, C.-F., Bien, S., Kitzmann, N., Lamboll, R. D., Rogelj, J., Donges, J. F., Rockström, J., Wunderling, N. (2024): Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks. - Nature Communications, 15, 6192.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0

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 Creators:
Möller, Tessa1, Author              
Högner, Annika Ernest1, Author              
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich1, Author              
Bien, Samuel1, Author              
Kitzmann, Niklas1, Author              
Lamboll, Robin D. 2, Author
Rogelj, Joeri2, Author
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann1, Author              
Rockström, Johan1, Author              
Wunderling, Nico1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10–90% range: 23–71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2024-06-212024-08-012024-08-01
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 11
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
Organisational keyword: Director Rockström
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Open Source Software
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
MDB-ID: pending
OATYPE: Gold - DEAL Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 15 Sequence Number: 6192 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Nature