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Journal Article

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Authors
/persons/resource/tessa.moeller

Möller,  Tessa
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/annikaernest.hoegner

Högner,  Annika Ernest
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/schleussner

Schleussner,  Carl-Friedrich
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Samuel.Bien

Bien,  Samuel
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Niklas.Kitzmann

Kitzmann,  Niklas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lamboll,  Robin D.
External Organizations;

Rogelj,  Joeri
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Donges

Donges,  Jonathan Friedemann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/johan.rockstrom

Rockström,  Johan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Nico.Wunderling

Wunderling,  Nico
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Fulltext (public)

30096oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 3MB

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Citation

Möller, T., Högner, A. E., Schleussner, C.-F., Bien, S., Kitzmann, N., Lamboll, R. D., Rogelj, J., Donges, J. F., Rockström, J., Wunderling, N. (2024): Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks. - Nature Communications, 15, 6192.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30096
Abstract
Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10–90% range: 23–71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability.