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要旨:
The nutrition transition transforms food systems globally and shapes public health and environmental
change. Here we provide a global forward‐looking assessment of a continued nutrition transition and its
interlinked symptoms in respect to food consumption. These symptoms range from underweight and
unbalanced diets to obesity, food waste and environmental pressure.
We find that by 2050, 45% (39‐52%) of the world population will be overweight and 16% (13‐20%) obese,
compared to 29% and 9% in 2010 respectively. The prevalence of underweight approximately halves but
absolute numbers stagnate at 0.4‐0.7 billion. Aligned, dietary composition shifts towards animal source
foods and empty calories, while the consumption of vegetables, fruits and nuts increase insufficiently.
Population growth, ageing, increasing body mass and more wasteful consumption patterns are jointly
pushing global food demand from 30 to 45 (43—47) Exajoules.
Our comprehensive open dataset and model provides the interfaces necessary for integrated studies of
global health, food systems, and environmental change. Achieving zero hunger, healthy diets, and a food
demand compatible with environmental boundaries necessitates a coordinated redirection of the
nutrition transition. Reducing household waste, animal source foods, and overweight could
synergistically address multiple symptoms at once, while eliminating underweight would not
substantially increase food demand.
