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Journal Article

The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection

Authors
/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky,  Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jan.Dietrich

Dietrich,  Jan Philipp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Martinelli.Eleonora

Martinelli,  Eleonora
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Stenstad.Antonia

Stenstad,  Antonia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/prajal.pradhan

Pradhan,  Prajal
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/gabrysch

Gabrysch,  Sabine
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Abhijeet.Mishra

Mishra,  Abhijeet
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Isabelle.Weindl

Weindl,  Isabelle
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Le Mouël,  Chantal
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Rolinski

Rolinski,  Susanne
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/lavinia.baumstark

Baumstark,  Lavinia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/xiaoxi.wang

Wang,  Xiaoxi
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/waid

Waid,  Jillian Lee
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen,  Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Fulltext (public)

24559oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 4MB

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Citation

Bodirsky, B. L., Dietrich, J. P., Martinelli, E., Stenstad, A., Pradhan, P., Gabrysch, S., Mishra, A., Weindl, I., Le Mouël, C., Rolinski, S., Baumstark, L., Wang, X., Waid, J. L., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A. (2020): The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection. - Scientific Reports, 10, 19778.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75213-3


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24559
Abstract
The nutrition transition transforms food systems globally and shapes public health and environmental change. Here we provide a global forward‐looking assessment of a continued nutrition transition and its interlinked symptoms in respect to food consumption. These symptoms range from underweight and unbalanced diets to obesity, food waste and environmental pressure. We find that by 2050, 45% (39‐52%) of the world population will be overweight and 16% (13‐20%) obese, compared to 29% and 9% in 2010 respectively. The prevalence of underweight approximately halves but absolute numbers stagnate at 0.4‐0.7 billion. Aligned, dietary composition shifts towards animal source foods and empty calories, while the consumption of vegetables, fruits and nuts increase insufficiently. Population growth, ageing, increasing body mass and more wasteful consumption patterns are jointly pushing global food demand from 30 to 45 (43—47) Exajoules. Our comprehensive open dataset and model provides the interfaces necessary for integrated studies of global health, food systems, and environmental change. Achieving zero hunger, healthy diets, and a food demand compatible with environmental boundaries necessitates a coordinated redirection of the nutrition transition. Reducing household waste, animal source foods, and overweight could synergistically address multiple symptoms at once, while eliminating underweight would not substantially increase food demand.