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  Impact of temperature and precipitation extremes on the flowering dates of four German wildlife shrub species

Siegmund, J. F., Wiedermann, M., Donges, J. F., Donner, R. V. (2016): Impact of temperature and precipitation extremes on the flowering dates of four German wildlife shrub species. - Biogeosciences, 13, 19, 5541-5555.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5541-2016

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 Creators:
Siegmund, Jonatan F.1, Author              
Wiedermann, Marc1, Author              
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann1, Author              
Donner, Reik V.1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Abstract. Ongoing climate change is known to cause an increase in the frequency and amplitude of local temperature and precipitation extremes in many regions of the Earth. While gradual changes in the climatological conditions have already been shown to strongly influence plant flowering dates, the question arises if and how extremes specifically impact the timing of this important phenological phase. Studying this question calls for the application of statistical methods that are tailored to the specific properties of event time series. Here, we employ event coincidence analysis, a novel statistical tool that allows assessing whether or not two types of events exhibit similar sequences of occurrences in order to systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of the flowering of four shrub species across Germany. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies by highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. However, previous studies solely based on correlation analysis do not allow deriving explicit estimates of the strength of such interdependencies without further assumptions, a gap that is closed by our analysis. In addition to direct impacts of extremely warm and cold spring temperatures, our analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the autumn preceding the flowering.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/bg-13-5541-2016
PIKDOMAIN: Transdisciplinary Concepts & Methods - Research Domain IV
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7450
Research topic keyword: Biodiversity
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Weather
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Regional keyword: Germany
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Game Theory & Networks of Interacting Agents
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Development of advanced time series analysis techniques
Working Group: Network- and machine-learning-based prediction of extreme events
 Degree: -

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Title: Biogeosciences
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 13 (19) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 5541 - 5555 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals47