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  Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario

Orlov, A., Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Daloz, A. S., Zabel, F., Minoli, S., Liu, W., Lin, T.-S., Jain, A. K., Folberth, C., Okada, M., Poschlod, B., Smerald, A., Schneider, J. M., Sillmann, J. (2024): Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario. - One Earth, 7, 7, 1250-1265.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.012

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 Creators:
Orlov, Anton1, Author
Jägermeyr, Jonas1, Author
Müller, Christoph2, Author              
Daloz, Anne Sophie1, Author
Zabel, Florian1, Author
Minoli, Sara2, Author              
Liu, Wenfeng1, Author
Lin, Tzu-Shun1, Author
Jain, Atul K.1, Author
Folberth, Christian1, Author
Okada, Masashi1, Author
Poschlod, Benjamin1, Author
Smerald, Andrew1, Author
Schneider, Julia M.1, Author
Sillmann, Jana1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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Free keywords: climate change, crop yields, heat stress, labor cost, labor productivity, labor capacity, agricultural labor
 Abstract: Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate impact on crops while neglecting the impact of heat stress on agricultural labor. Here, we assess the economic consequences of climate impacts on four major crops—maize, soybean, wheat, and rice—for scenarios involving low and high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on the output from a new generation of global climate and crop models to drive a multiregional economic model. We find that, even under a high-emission scenario, the effect of CO2 fertilization could lead to higher yields, resulting in lower prices for major crops, except for maize. However, heat-induced losses in agricultural labor could offset the potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production in Asia and Africa. Our findings emphasize the importance of addressing heat-stress impacts on agricultural labor through proactive adaptation measures.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-11-272024-06-212024-07-192024-07-19
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 17
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.012
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Health
Regional keyword: Global
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: One Earth
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, SSCI, Scopus, Scopus since 2019
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 7 (7) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1250 - 1265 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/one-earth
Publisher: Elsevier
Publisher: Cell Press