Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization 
in crop production under a high-emissions scenario

Orlov, Anton; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Müller, Christoph; Daloz, Anne Sophie; Zabel, Florian; Minoli, Sara; Liu, Wenfeng; Lin, Tzu-Shun; Jain, Atul K.; Folberth, Christian; Okada, Masashi; Poschlod, Benjamin; Smerald, Andrew; Schneider, Julia M.; Sillmann, Jana

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.012

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Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario

Urheber*innen

Orlov, Anton
External Organizations;

Jägermeyr, Jonas
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Daloz, Anne Sophie
External Organizations;

Zabel, Florian
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sara.minoli

Minoli, Sara
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Liu, Wenfeng
External Organizations;

Lin, Tzu-Shun
External Organizations;

Jain, Atul K.
External Organizations;

Folberth, Christian
External Organizations;

Okada, Masashi
External Organizations;

Poschlod, Benjamin
External Organizations;

Smerald, Andrew
External Organizations;

Schneider, Julia M.
External Organizations;

Sillmann, Jana
External Organizations;

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1-s2.0-S2590332224003166-mmc2.pdf
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Zitation

Orlov, A., Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Daloz, A. S., Zabel, F., Minoli, S., Liu, W., Lin, T.-S., Jain, A. K., Folberth, C., Okada, M., Poschlod, B., Smerald, A., Schneider, J. M., Sillmann, J. (2024): Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario. - One Earth, 7, 7, 1250-1265.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.012

Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30017

Zusammenfassung

Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate impact on crops while neglecting the impact of heat stress on agricultural labor. Here, we assess the economic consequences of climate impacts on four major crops—maize, soybean, wheat, and rice—for scenarios involving low and high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on the output from a new generation of global climate and crop models to drive a multiregional economic model. We find that, even under a high-emission scenario, the effect of CO2 fertilization could lead to higher yields, resulting in lower prices for major crops, except for maize. However, heat-induced losses in agricultural labor could offset the potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production in Asia and Africa. Our findings emphasize the importance of addressing heat-stress impacts on agricultural labor through proactive adaptation measures.