English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
 
 
DownloadE-Mail
  Propagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures

Strnad, F., Schlör, J., Geen, R., Boers, N., Goswami, B. (2023): Propagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures. - Nature Communications, 14, 5708.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41400-9

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
28721oa.pdf (Publisher version), 4MB
Name:
28721oa.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Strnad, Felix1, Author
Schlör, Jakob 1, Author
Geen, Ruth 1, Author
Boers, Niklas2, Author              
Goswami, Bedartha1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: Intraseasonal variation of rainfall extremes within boreal summer in the Indo-Pacific region is driven by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), a quasi-periodic north-eastward movement of convective precipitation from the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific. Predicting the spatiotemporal location of the BSISO is essential for subseasonal prediction of rainfall extremes but still remains a major challenge due to insufficient understanding of its propagation pathway. Here, using unsupervised machine learning, we characterize how rainfall extremes travel within the region and reveal three distinct propagation modes: north-eastward, eastward-blocked, and quasi-stationary. We show that Pacific sea surface temperatures modulate BSISO propagation — with El Niño-like (La Niña-like) conditions favoring quasi-stationary (eastward-blocked) modes—by changing the background moist static energy via local overturning circulations. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for early warning of rainfall extremes in the region up to four weeks in advance.

Details

show
hide
Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-09-012023-09-152023-09-15
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 16
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41400-9
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 14 Sequence Number: 5708 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Nature