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  Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test

Glanemann, N., Willner, S., Levermann, A. (2020): Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test. - Nature Communications, 11, 110.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13961-1

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23426 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23426_5
Genre: Journal Article

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Glanemann, Nicole1, Author              
Willner, Sven1, Author              
Levermann, Anders1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C. This implies mitigation costs as well as avoided climate damages. Here we show that independent of the normative assumptions of inequality aversion and time preferences, the agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the century. To this end we consistently incorporate a damage-cost curve reproducing the observed relation between temperature and economic growth into the integrated assessment model DICE. We thus provide an inter-temporally optimizing cost-benefit analysis of this century’s climate problem. We account for uncertainties regarding the damage curve, climate sensitivity, socioeconomic future, and mitigation costs. The resulting optimal temperature is robust as can be understood from the generic temperature-dependence of the mitigation costs and the level of damages inferred from the observed temperature-growth relationship. Our results show that the politically motivated Paris Climate Agreement also represents the economically favourable pathway, if carried out properly.

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 Dates: 2020
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13961-1
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
eDoc: 8658
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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 Sequence Number: 110 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Springer Nature