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  Responsibility under uncertainty: which climate decisions matter most?

Botta, N., Brede, N., Crucifix, M., Ionescu, C., Jansson, P., Li, Z., Martínez-Montero, M., Richter, T. (2023 online): Responsibility under uncertainty: which climate decisions matter most? - Environmental Modeling and Assessment.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-022-09867-w

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Datensatz-Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27500 Versions-Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27500_3
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 Urheber:
Botta, Nicola1, Autor              
Brede, Nuria1, Autor              
Crucifix, Michel 2, Autor
Ionescu, Cezar 2, Autor
Jansson, Patrik 2, Autor
Li, Zheng 2, Autor
Martínez-Montero, Marina2, Autor
Richter, Tim 2, Autor
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: We propose a new method for estimating how much decisions under monadic uncertainty matter. The method is generic and suitable for measuring responsibility in finite horizon sequential decision processes. It fulfills “fairness” requirements and three natural conditions for responsibility measures: agency, avoidance and causal relevance. We apply the method to study how much decisions matter in a stylized greenhouse gas emissions process in which a decision maker repeatedly faces two options: start a “green” transition to a decarbonized society or further delay such a transition. We account for the fact that climate decisions are rarely implemented with certainty and that their consequences on the climate and on the global economy are uncertain. We discover that a “moral” approach towards decision making — doing the right thing even though the probability of success becomes increasingly small — is rational over a wide range of uncertainties.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2022-10-232023-02-02
 Publikationsstatus: Online veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 29
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: MDB-ID: pending
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Research topic keyword: Attribution
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Policy Advice
Model / method: Decision Theory
Model / method: Open Source Software
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
OATYPE: Hybrid - DEAL Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1007/s10666-022-09867-w
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Environmental Modeling and Assessment
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: - Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals126
Publisher: Springer Nature