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  Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate change: A scenario-based approach for the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River

Lobanova, A., Liersch, S., Tàbara, J. D., Koch, H., Hattermann, F. F., & Krysanova, V. (2017). Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate change: A scenario-based approach for the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River. Journal of Hydrology, 548, 436-447. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.015.

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資料種別: 学術論文

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 作成者:
Lobanova, Anastasia1, 著者              
Liersch, Stefan1, 著者              
Tàbara, J. D.2, 著者
Koch, Hagen1, 著者              
Hattermann, Fred Fokko1, 著者              
Krysanova, Valentina1, 著者              
所属:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 要旨: Conventional water management strategies, that serve solely socio-economic demands and neglect changing natural conditions of the river basins, face significant challenges in governing complex human-hydrological systems, especially in the areas with constrained water availability. In this study we assess the possibility to harmonize the inter-sectoral water allocation scheme within a highly altered human-hydrological system under reduction in water availability, triggered by projected climate change applying scenario-based approach. The Tagus River Basin headwaters, with significant disproportion in the water resources allocation between the environmental and socio-economic targets were taken as a perfect example of such system out of balance. We propose three different water allocation strategies for this region, including two conventional schemes and one imposing shift to sustainable water management and environmental restoration of the river. We combine in one integrated modelling framework the eco-hydrological process-based Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), coupled with the conceptual reservoir and water allocation modules driven by the latest bias-corrected climate projections for the region and investigate possible water allocation scenarios in the region under constrained water availability in the future. Our results show that the socio-economic demands have to be re-considered and lowered under any water allocation strategy, as the climate impacts may significantly reduce water availability in the future. Further, we show that a shift to sustainable water management strategy and river restoration is possible even under reduced water availability. Finally, our results suggest that the adaptation of complex human-hydrological systems to climate change and a shift to a more sustainable water management are likely to be parts of one joint strategy to cope with climate change impacts.

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 日付: 2017
 出版の状態: Finally published
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 識別子(DOI, ISBNなど): DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.015
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7604
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
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出版物 1

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出版物名: Journal of Hydrology
種別: 学術雑誌, SCI, Scopus, p3
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出版社, 出版地: -
ページ: - 巻号: 548 通巻号: - 開始・終了ページ: 436 - 447 識別子(ISBN, ISSN, DOIなど): CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals276