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  Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change

Gudmundsson, L., Kirchner, J., Gädeke, A., Noetzli, J., Biskaborn, B. K. (2022): Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change. - Environmental Research Letters, 17, 9, 095014.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2

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 Creators:
Gudmundsson, Lukas1, Author
Kirchner, Josefine1, Author
Gädeke, Anne2, Author              
Noetzli, Jeannette1, Author
Biskaborn, Boris K.1, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost temperature records from 15 boreholes in the northern hemisphere to simulated ground temperatures from Earth System models contributing to CMIP6 using a climate change detection and attribution approach. We show that neither pre-industrial climate variability nor natural drivers of climate change suffice to explain the observed warming in permafrost temperature averaged over all boreholes. However, simulations are consistent with observations if the effects of human emissions on the global climate system are considered. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the effect of anthropogenic climate change on permafrost temperature is detectable at some of the boreholes. Thus, the presented evidence supports the conclusion that anthropogenic climate change is the key driver of northern hemisphere permafrost warming.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-09-022022-09-022022-09
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 9
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2
MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
Research topic keyword: Attribution
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 17 (9) Sequence Number: 095014 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing