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  Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

Höning, D., Willeit, M., Calov, R., Klemann, V., Bagge, M., Ganopolski, A. (2023): Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions. - Geophysical Research Letters, 50, 6, e2022GL101827.

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28196 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28196_2
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Höning, Dennis1, Author              
Willeit, Matteo1, Author              
Calov, Reinhard1, Author              
Klemann, Volker2, Author
Bagge, Meike2, Author
Ganopolski, Andrey1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Understanding the future fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in the context of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is crucial to predict sea level rise. With the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, we study the stability of the GIS and its transient response to CO2 emissions over the next 10 kyr. Bifurcation points exist at global temperature anomalies of 0.6 and 1.6 K relative to pre-industrial. For system states in the vicinity of the equilibrium ice volumes corresponding to these temperature anomalies, mass loss rate and sensitivity of mass loss to cumulative CO2 emission peak. These critical ice volumes are crossed for cumulative emissions of 1000 and 2500 GtC, which would cause long-term sea level rise by 1.8 and 6.9 m respectively. In summary, we find tipping of the GIS within the range of the temperature limits of the Paris agreement.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-02-282023-03-272023-03
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 11
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Ice
Research topic keyword: Sea-level Rise
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Model / method: CLIMBER
Working Group: Long-Term Dynamics of the Earth System
MDB-ID: pending
OATYPE: Hybrid - DEAL Wiley
 Degree: -

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Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 50 (6) Sequence Number: e2022GL101827 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals182
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Publisher: Wiley