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  Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
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Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios.pdf (Publisher version), 5MB
 
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Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios.pdf
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 Creators:
Luderer, Gunnar1, Author           
Madeddu, Silvia1, Author           
Merfort, Leon1, Author           
Ueckerdt, Falko1, Author           
Pehl, Michaja1, Author           
Pietzcker, Robert C.1, Author           
Rottoli, Marianna1, Author           
Schreyer, Felix1, Author           
Bauer, Nicolas1, Author           
Baumstark, Lavinia1, Author           
Bertram, Christoph1, Author           
Dirnaichner, Alois1, Author           
Humpenöder, Florian1, Author           
Levesque, Antoine1, Author           
Popp, Alexander1, Author           
Dias Bleasby Rodrigues, Renato1, Author           
Strefler, Jessica1, Author           
Kriegler, Elmar1, Author           
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements.

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 Dates: 2021-10-072021-11-25
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Carbon Pricing
Research topic keyword: Economics
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: REMIND
MDB-ID: yes - 3269
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Energy
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: Publisher: Springer Nature
Other: 2058-7546
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-energy