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  Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050

Otto, I. M., Donges, J. F., Cremades, R., Bhowmik, A., Hewitt, R. J., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Allerberger, F., McCaffrey, M., Doe, S. S. P., Lenferna, A., Morán, N., Vuuren, D. P. v., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020): Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050. - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 117, 5, 2354-2365.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900577117

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 Creators:
Otto, Ilona M.1, Author              
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann1, Author              
Cremades, R.2, Author
Bhowmik, A.2, Author
Hewitt, R. J.2, Author
Lucht, Wolfgang1, Author              
Rockström, Johan1, Author              
Allerberger, F.2, Author
McCaffrey, M.2, Author
Doe, S. S. P.2, Author
Lenferna, A.2, Author
Morán, N.2, Author
Vuuren, D. P. van2, Author
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth’s climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.

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 Dates: 2020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900577117
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
PIKDOMAIN: Director Emeritus / Executive Staff / Science & Society
eDoc: 8711
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Research topic keyword: Decarbonization  
Research topic keyword: Global Commons
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Policy Advice
Model / method: Qualitative Methods
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: Director Rockström
Organisational keyword: Director Emeritus Schellnhuber
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
 Degree: -

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Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 117 (5) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 2354 - 2365 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals410
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences (NAS)