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Journal Article

Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050

Authors
/persons/resource/Ilona.Otto

Otto,  Ilona M.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Donges

Donges,  Jonathan Friedemann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Cremades,  R.
External Organizations;

Bhowmik,  A.
External Organizations;

Hewitt,  R. J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Wolfgang.Lucht

Lucht,  Wolfgang
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/johan.rockstrom

Rockström,  Johan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Allerberger,  F.
External Organizations;

McCaffrey,  M.
External Organizations;

Doe,  S. S. P.
External Organizations;

Lenferna,  A.
External Organizations;

Morán,  N.
External Organizations;

Vuuren,  D. P. van
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/emdir

Schellnhuber,  Hans Joachim
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource
No external resources are shared
Fulltext (public)

23515oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 2MB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Otto, I. M., Donges, J. F., Cremades, R., Bhowmik, A., Hewitt, R. J., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Allerberger, F., McCaffrey, M., Doe, S. S. P., Lenferna, A., Morán, N., Vuuren, D. P. v., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020): Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050. - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 117, 5, 2354-2365.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900577117


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23515
Abstract
Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth’s climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.