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  Substantial differences in crop yield sensitivities between models call for functionality-based model evaluation

Müller, C., Jägermeyr, J., Franke, J. A., Balkovič, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., Falloon, P., Folberth, C., Hank, T., Hoffmann, M., Izaurralde, R., Jacquemin, I., Khabarov, N., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T., Wang, X., Williams, K. E., Zabel, F., Elliott, J. W. (2024): Substantial differences in crop yield sensitivities between models call for functionality-based model evaluation. - Earth's Future, 12, 3, e2023EF003773.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003773

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962453_0_supp_10949428_rr186z.pdf (Supplementary material), 8MB
 
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https://zenodo.org/records/2582531 (Supplementary material)
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This data set contains output data from simulations with the model APSIM-UGOE for maize as part of AgMIP's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase II output data set.

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 Creators:
Müller, Christoph1, Author              
Jägermeyr, Jonas1, Author              
Franke, James A.2, Author
Balkovič, Juraj2, Author
Ciais, Philippe2, Author
Dury, Marie2, Author
Falloon, Pete2, Author
Folberth, Christian2, Author
Hank, Tobias2, Author
Hoffmann, Munir2, Author
Izaurralde, Roberto2, Author
Jacquemin, Ingrid2, Author
Khabarov, Nikolay2, Author
Liu, Wenfeng2, Author
Olin, Stefan2, Author
Pugh, Thomas2, Author
Wang, Xuhui2, Author
Williams, Karina Emmanuelle2, Author
Zabel, Florian2, Author
Elliott, Joshua W2, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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Free keywords: agmip, crop model, evaluation, global, sensitivity, uncertainty
 Abstract: Crop models are often used to project future crop yield under climate and global change and typically show a broad range of outcomes. To understand differences in modeled responses, we analysed modeled crop yield response types using impact response surfaces along four drivers of crop yield: carbon dioxide (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N). Crop yield response types help to understand differences in simulated responses per driver and their combinations rather than aggregated changes in yields as the result of simultaneous changes in various drivers. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual drivers are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response types across models and their configurations suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model evaluation based on emergent functionality not only against historical yield observations but also against dedicated experiments across different drivers to analyze emergent functional patterns of crop models.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-05-022024-02-212024-03-112024-03-11
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 21
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: LPJmL
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI)
OATYPE: Gold - DEAL Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2023EF003773
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth's Future
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 12 (3) Sequence Number: e2023EF003773 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/170925
Publisher: Wiley