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  How uncertainty in technology costs and carbon dioxide removal availability affect climate mitigation pathways

Giannousakis, A., Hilaire, J., Nemet, G. F., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Dias Bleasby Rodrigues, R., Baumstark, L., Kriegler, E. (2021): How uncertainty in technology costs and carbon dioxide removal availability affect climate mitigation pathways. - Energy, 216, 119253.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119253

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24779 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24779_7
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Giannousakis, Anastasis1, Author              
Hilaire, Jérôme1, Author              
Nemet, Gregory F.2, Author
Luderer, Gunnar1, Author              
Pietzcker, Robert C.1, Author              
Dias Bleasby Rodrigues, Renato1, Author              
Baumstark, Lavinia1, Author              
Kriegler, Elmar1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Limiting global warming to “well below 2°C” as stated in the Paris Agreement requires ambitious emissions reductions from all sectors. Rapid technology cost declines in the energy sector are changing energy investment and emissions, even with the weak climate policies currently in place. We assess how energy supply costs and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) availability affect mitigation by performing a sensitivity analysis with the energy-economy-climate model REMIND. We use new scenarios with carbon price paths that aim to reduce the frequently seen temperature overshoot. Further, we measure the sensitivities of mitigation indicators to the costs of technologies across economic sectors. We assess the sensitivity to nine techno-economic parameters: the costs of wind, solar, biomass, gas, coal, oil, nuclear, and electric/hydrogen vehicles, as well as the injection rate of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). While technology costs play a role in shaping optimal pathways, we find that transport sector costs affect the economics of deep decarbonization, whereas costs of renewables are more important for scenarios under weak climate policies. This further highlights the value of renewable energy deployment as a no-regrets option in climate policy. In terms of the sensitivity of model outputs, economic indicators become more sensitive to costs than emissions, with increasing policy stringency.

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 Dates: 2020-11-042020-11-112021-01-05
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.119253
MDB-ID: yes - 3068
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: CO2 Removal
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: Decision Theory
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
 Degree: -

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Title: Energy
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 216 Sequence Number: 119253 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals113
Publisher: Elsevier