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  Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization?

Kriegler, E., Mouratiadou, I., Luderer, G., Bauer, N., Brecha, R. J., Calvin, K., De Cian, E., Edmonds, J., Jiang, K., Tavoni, M., Edenhofer, O. (2016): Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization? - Climatic Change, 136, 1, 7-22.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1668-3

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 Creators:
Kriegler, Elmar1, Author              
Mouratiadou, Ioanna1, Author              
Luderer, Gunnar1, Author              
Bauer, Nicolas1, Author              
Brecha, Robert J.1, Author              
Calvin, K.2, Author
De Cian, E.2, Author
Edmonds, J.2, Author
Jiang, K.2, Author
Tavoni, M.2, Author
Edenhofer, Ottmar1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: We investigate the extent to which future energy transformation pathways meeting ambitious climate change mitigation targets depend on assumptions about economic growth and fossil fuel availability. The analysis synthesizes results from the RoSE multi-model study aiming to identify robust and sensitive features of mitigation pathways under these inherently uncertain drivers of energy and emissions developments. Based on an integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we show that economic growth and fossil resource assumptions substantially affect baseline developments, but in no case they lead to the significant greenhouse gas emission reduction that would be needed to achieve long-term climate targets without dedicated climate policy. The influence of economic growth and fossil resource assumptions on climate mitigation pathways is relatively small due to overriding requirements imposed by long-term climate targets. While baseline assumptions can have substantial effects on mitigation costs and carbon prices, we find that the effects of model differences and the stringency of the climate target are larger compared to that of baseline assumptions. We conclude that inherent uncertainties about socio-economic determinants like economic growth and fossil resource availability can be effectively dealt with in the assessment of mitigation pathways.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1668-3
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 7285
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Decarbonization  
Research topic keyword: Energy
Model / method: REMIND
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Energy Systems
 Degree: -

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Title: Climatic Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 136 (1) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 7 - 22 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals80