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  Climate-induced hysteresis of the tropical forest in a fire-enabled Earth system model

Drüke, M., von Bloh, W., Sakschewski, B., Wunderling, N., Petri, S., Cardoso, M., Barbosa, H. M. J., Thonicke, K. (2021 online): Climate-induced hysteresis of the tropical forest in a fire-enabled Earth system model. - European Physical Journal - Special Topics.
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00157-2

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25573 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25573_4
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Drüke, Markus1, Author              
von Bloh, Werner1, Author              
Sakschewski, Boris1, Author              
Wunderling, Nico1, Author              
Petri, Stefan1, Author              
Cardoso, Manoel2, Author
Barbosa, Henrique M. J.2, Author
Thonicke, Kirsten1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Tropical rainforests are recognized as one of the terrestrialtipping elements which could have profound impacts on the global cli-mate, once their vegetation has transitioned into savanna or grasslandstates. While several studies investigated the savannization of, e.g., theAmazon rainforest, few studies considered the influence of fire. Fire isexpected to potentially shift the savanna-forest boundary and henceimpact the dynamical equilibrium between these two possible vegeta-tion states under changing climate. To investigate the climate-inducedhysteresis in pan-tropical forests and the impact of fire under future cli-mate conditions, we employed the Earth system model CM2Mc, whichis biophysically coupled to the fire-enabled state-of-the-art dynamicglobal vegetation model LPJmL. We conducted several simulation ex-periments where atmospheric CO2concentrations increased (impactphase) and decreased from the new state (recovery phase), each withand without enabling wildfires. We find a hysteresis of the biomassand vegetation cover in tropical forest systems, with a strong regionalheterogeneity. After biomass loss along increasing atmospheric CO2concentrations and accompanied mean surface temperature increase ofabout 4°C (impact phase), the system does not recover completely intoits original state on its return path, even though atmospheric CO2concentrations return to their original state. While not detecting large-scale tipping points, our results show a climate-induced hysteresis intropical forest and lagged responses in forest recovery after the climatehas returned to its original state. Wildfires slightly widen the climate-induced hysteresis in tropical forests and lead to a lagged response inforest recovery by ca. 30 years.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-04-292021-06-14
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: yes - 3202
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Ecosystems in Transition
Working Group: Earth System Model Development
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Forest
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Regional keyword: South America
Regional keyword: Africa
Model / method: LPJmL
Model / method: POEM
OATYPE: Hybrid - DEAL Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00157-2
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Title: European Physical Journal - Special Topics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150617
Publisher: Springer