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  Threat of low-frequency high-intensity floods to global cropland and crop yields

Han, J., Zhang, Z., Xu, J., Chen, Y., Jägermeyr, J., Cao, J., Luo, Y., Cheng, F., Zhuang, H., Wu, H., Mei, Q., Song, J., Tao, F. (2024): Threat of low-frequency high-intensity floods to global cropland and crop yields. - Nature Sustainability, 7, 994-1006.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01375-x

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 Creators:
Han, Jichong1, Author
Zhang, Zhao1, Author
Xu, Jialu1, Author
Chen, Yi1, Author
Jägermeyr, Jonas2, Author              
Cao, Juan1, Author
Luo, Yuchuan1, Author
Cheng, Fei1, Author
Zhuang, Huimin1, Author
Wu, Huaqing1, Author
Mei, Qinghang1, Author
Song, Jie1, Author
Tao, Fulu1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Flood hazards pose a significant threat to agricultural production. Agricultural adaptations tend to be prevalent and systematic in high-frequency flood (HFF) areas but neglected in low-frequency flood (LFF) areas. Here, using satellite imagery, we map global spatial distributions of LFF and HFF at 250 m resolution for 3,427 flood events between 2000 and 2021. We show that LFF affected a larger proportion of cropland area (4.7%) than HFF (1.2%), and HFF occurred in smaller regions with less intensity. Cropland expansion between 2000 and 2019 increased the area affected by LFF (3.1 × 104 km2) more than that affected by HFF (1.3 × 104 km2). Moreover, the mean yield losses of wheat and rice from LFF were greater than those from HFF, owing to the higher precipitation anomalies, soil moisture anomalies and greater crop flooding during their growing seasons. Our findings highlight the urgency of this issue and identify priority areas to prevent these neglected low-frequency but high-impact floods, providing valuable information for developing flood-adapted policy.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-08-022024-05-152024-06-242024-08-01
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 16
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01375-x
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Weather
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
MDB-ID: pending
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Sustainability
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 7 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 994 - 1006 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-sustainability
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences (NAS)