Deutsch
 
Datenschutzhinweis Impressum
  DetailsucheBrowse

Datensatz

 
 
DownloadE-Mail
  Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations

Boulange, J., Hanasaki, N., Satoh, Y., Yokohata, T., Shiogama, H., Burek, P., Thiery, W., Gerten, D., Müller Schmied, H., Wada, Y., Gosling, S. N., Pokhrel, Y. N., Wanders, N. (2021): Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations. - Environmental Research Letters, 16, 10, 104028.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc

Item is

Dateien

einblenden: Dateien
ausblenden: Dateien
:
26016oa.pdf (Verlagsversion), 2MB
Name:
26016oa.pdf
Beschreibung:
-
Sichtbarkeit:
Öffentlich
MIME-Typ / Prüfsumme:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technische Metadaten:
Copyright Datum:
-
Copyright Info:
-

Externe Referenzen

einblenden:

Urheber

einblenden:
ausblenden:
 Urheber:
Boulange, Julien1, Autor
Hanasaki, Naota1, Autor
Satoh, Yusuke1, Autor
Yokohata, Tokuta1, Autor
Shiogama, Hideo1, Autor
Burek, Peter1, Autor
Thiery, Wim1, Autor
Gerten, Dieter2, Autor              
Müller Schmied, Hannes1, Autor
Wada, Yoshihide1, Autor
Gosling, Simon N.1, Autor
Pokhrel, Yadu N.1, Autor
Wanders, Niko1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

Inhalt

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Schlagwörter: -
 Zusammenfassung: Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient climate in comparison with the equilibrium climate. Therefore, it is unclear whether floods and droughts projected under a transient climate can be systematically substituted for those occurring in an equilibrated climate. Here, by employing a large ensemble of global hydrological models (HMs) forced by global climate models, we assess the validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations. Differences in flood characteristics under transient and equilibrium climates could be largely ascribed to natural variability, indicating that the floods derived from a transient climate reasonably approximate the floods expected in an equally warm, equilibrated climate. By contrast, significant differences in drought intensity between transient and equilibrium climates were detected over a larger global land area than expected from natural variability. Despite the large differences among HMs in representing the low streamflow regime, we found that the drought intensities occurring under a transient climate may not validly represent the intensities in an equally warm equilibrated climate for approximately 6.7% of the global land area.

Details

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2021-09-202021-09-172021-10-05
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc
MDB-ID: yes - 3238
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Model / method: LPJmL
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

Veranstaltung

einblenden:

Entscheidung

einblenden:

Projektinformation

einblenden:

Quelle 1

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Titel: Environmental Research Letters
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 16 (10) Artikelnummer: 104028 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing