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  Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe - their causes and consequences for decision making

Kundzewicz, Z. W., Krysanova, V., Dankers, R., Hirabayashi, Y., Kanae, S., Hattermann, F. F., Huang, S., Milly, P. C. D., Stoffel, M., Driessen, P. P. J., Matczak, P., Quevauviller, P., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2017): Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe - their causes and consequences for decision making. - Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62, 1, 1-14.
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1241398

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Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.1, Autor              
Krysanova, Valentina1, Autor              
Dankers, R.2, Autor
Hirabayashi, Y.2, Autor
Kanae, S.2, Autor
Hattermann, Fred Fokko1, Autor              
Huang, S.2, Autor
Milly, P. C. D.2, Autor
Stoffel, M.2, Autor
Driessen, P. P. J.2, Autor
Matczak, P.2, Autor
Quevauviller, P.2, Autor
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim1, Autor              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.

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 Datum: 2017
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2016.1241398
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
eDoc: 7291
Research topic keyword: Policy Advice
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Regional keyword: Europe
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: Qualitative Methods
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: Director Emeritus Schellnhuber
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Hydrological Sciences Journal
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 62 (1) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 1 - 14 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals206