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  An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins

Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Chamorro, A., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., Huang, J., Hundecha, Y., Koch, H., Kalugin, A., Krylenko, I., Mishra, V., Piniewski, M., Samaniego, L., Seidou, O., Wallner, M., Krysanova, V. (2017): An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins. - Climatic Change, 141, 3, 401-417.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1844-5

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 Creators:
Eisner, S.1, Author
Flörke, M.1, Author
Chamorro, A.1, Author
Daggupati, P.1, Author
Donnelly, C.1, Author
Huang, J.1, Author
Hundecha, Y.1, Author
Koch, Hagen2, Author              
Kalugin, A.1, Author
Krylenko, I.1, Author
Mishra, V.1, Author
Piniewski, Mikolaj2, Author              
Samaniego, L.1, Author
Seidou, O.1, Author
Wallner, M.1, Author
Krysanova, Valentina2, Author              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The paper investigates climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality for a set of eleven representative large river basins covering all continents and a wide range of climatic and physiographic settings. Based on an ensemble of nine regional hydrological models driven by climate projections derived from five global circulation models under four representative concentration pathways, we analyzed the median and range of projected changes in seasonal streamflow by the end of the twenty-first century and examined the uncertainty arising from the different members of the modelling chain. Climate change impacts on the timing of seasonal streamflow were found to be small except for two basins. In many basins, we found an acceleration of the existing seasonality pattern, i.e. high-flows are projected to increase and/or low-flows are projected to decrease. In some basins the hydrologic projections indicate opposite directions of change which cancel out in the ensemble median, i.e., no robust conclusions could be drawn. In the majority of the basins, differences in projected streamflow seasonality between the low emission pathway and the high emission pathway are small with the exception of four basins. For these basins our results allow conclusions on the potential benefits (or adverse effects) of avoided GHG emissions for the seasonal streamflow regime.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1844-5
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7458
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Model / method: SWIM
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
 Degree: -

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Title: Climatic Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 141 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 401 - 417 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals80