An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 
11 large river basins

Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Chamorro, A.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Huang, J.; Hundecha, Y.; Koch, Hagen; Kalugin, A.; Krylenko, I.; Mishra, V.; Piniewski, Mikolaj; Samaniego, L.; Seidou, O.; Wallner, M.; Krysanova, Valentina

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1844-5

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT

Add to Basket

Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Released

Journal Article

An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins

Authors

Eisner, S.
External Organizations;

Flörke, M.
External Organizations;

Chamorro, A.
External Organizations;

Daggupati, P.
External Organizations;

Donnelly, C.
External Organizations;

Huang, J.
External Organizations;

Hundecha, Y.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Hagen.Koch

Koch, Hagen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Kalugin, A.
External Organizations;

Krylenko, I.
External Organizations;

Mishra, V.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Piniewski.Mikolaj

Piniewski, Mikolaj
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Samaniego, L.
External Organizations;

Seidou, O.
External Organizations;

Wallner, M.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Valentina.Krysanova

Krysanova, Valentina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource

No external resources are shared

Fulltext (public)

There are no public fulltexts stored in PIKpublic

Supplementary Material (public)

There is no public supplementary material available

Citation

Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Chamorro, A., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., Huang, J., Hundecha, Y., Koch, H., Kalugin, A., Krylenko, I., Mishra, V., Piniewski, M., Samaniego, L., Seidou, O., Wallner, M., Krysanova, V. (2017): An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins. - Climatic Change, 141, 3, 401-417.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1844-5

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21400

Abstract

The paper investigates climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality for a set of eleven representative large river basins covering all continents and a wide range of climatic and physiographic settings. Based on an ensemble of nine regional hydrological models driven by climate projections derived from five global circulation models under four representative concentration pathways, we analyzed the median and range of projected changes in seasonal streamflow by the end of the twenty-first century and examined the uncertainty arising from the different members of the modelling chain. Climate change impacts on the timing of seasonal streamflow were found to be small except for two basins. In many basins, we found an acceleration of the existing seasonality pattern, i.e. high-flows are projected to increase and/or low-flows are projected to decrease. In some basins the hydrologic projections indicate opposite directions of change which cancel out in the ensemble median, i.e., no robust conclusions could be drawn. In the majority of the basins, differences in projected streamflow seasonality between the low emission pathway and the high emission pathway are small with the exception of four basins. For these basins our results allow conclusions on the potential benefits (or adverse effects) of avoided GHG emissions for the seasonal streamflow regime.