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  The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

Schewe, J., Otto, C., Frieler, K. (2017): The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices. - Environmental Research Letters, 12, 5, 054005.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa678e

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 Urheber:
Schewe, Jacob1, Autor              
Otto, Christian1, Autor              
Frieler, Katja1, Autor              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply–demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries' trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

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 Datum: 2017
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
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 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa678e
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7591
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Model / method: Agent-based Models
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Event-based modeling of economic impacts of climate change
Working Group: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Population Dynamics
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Titel: Environmental Research Letters
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 12 (5) Artikelnummer: 054005 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326