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  Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

Veldkamp, T. I. E., Wada, Y., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Döll, P., Gosling, S. N., Liu, J., Masaki, Y., Oki, T., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Sato, Y., Kim, H., Ward, P. J. (2017): Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century. - Nature Communications, 8, 15697.
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15697

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 Creators:
Veldkamp, T. I. E.1, Author
Wada, Y.1, Author
Aerts, J. C. J. H.1, Author
Döll, P.1, Author
Gosling, S. N.1, Author
Liu, J.1, Author
Masaki, Y.1, Author
Oki, T.1, Author
Ostberg, Sebastian2, Author              
Pokhrel, Y.1, Author
Sato, Y.1, Author
Kim, H.1, Author
Ward, P. J.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many regions. In a novel, multi-model assessment, we examine how human interventions (HI: land use and land cover change, man-made reservoirs and human water use) affected monthly river water availability and water scarcity over the period 1971–2010. Here we show that HI drastically change the critical dimensions of water scarcity, aggravating water scarcity for 8.8% (7.4–16.5%) of the global population but alleviating it for another 8.3% (6.4–15.8%). Positive impacts of HI mostly occur upstream, whereas HI aggravate water scarcity downstream; HI cause water scarcity to travel downstream. Attribution of water scarcity changes to HI components is complex and varies among the hydrological models. Seasonal variation in impacts and dominant HI components is also substantial. A thorough consideration of the spatially and temporally varying interactions among HI components and of uncertainties is therefore crucial for the success of water scarcity adaptation by HI.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15697
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7686
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Attribution
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 8 Sequence Number: 15697 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354