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  Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris

Bittermann, K., Rahmstorf, S., Kopp, R. E., Kemp, A. C. (2017): Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris. - Environmental Research Letters, 12, 12, 124010.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9def

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Bittermann, Klaus1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Rahmstorf, Stefan1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
Kopp, R. E.2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Kemp, A. C.2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
???ViewItemFull_lblAffiliations???:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to 'well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels', projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 °C. Using a semi-empirical model, we project GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm (90% credible interval: 14–21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr−1 (90% credible interval: 1.4–2.6 mm yr−1). Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 °C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr−1 (90% credible interval: 2.0–4.0 mm yr−1).

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2017
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblIdentifiers???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_DOI???: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9def
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_EDOC???: 7828
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Sea-level Rise
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Oceans
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Mitigation
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: 1.5/2°C limit
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_ORGANISATIONALK???: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Earth System Model Development
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Earth System Modes of Operation
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: Environmental Research Letters
???ViewItemFull_lblSourceGenre???: ???ENUM_GENRE_JOURNAL???, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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???ViewItemFull_lblPages???: ???lbl_noEntry??? ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceVolumeIssue???: 12 (12) ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceSequenceNo???: 124010 ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceStartEndPage???: ???lbl_noEntry??? ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceIdentifier???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_CONE???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326