English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
  Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile

Liersch, S., Tecklenburg, J., Rust, H., Dobler, A., Fischer, M., Kruschke, T., Koch, H., Hattermann, F. F. (2018): Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile. - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22, 4, 2163-2185.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
8069oa.pdf (Publisher version), 8MB
Name:
8069oa.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Liersch, Stefan1, Author              
Tecklenburg, Julia1, Author              
Rust, H.2, Author
Dobler, A.2, Author
Fischer, M.2, Author
Kruschke, T.2, Author
Koch, Hagen1, Author              
Hattermann, Fred Fokko1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: Climate simulations are the fuel to drive hydrological models that are used to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological parameters, such as river discharges, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Unlike with cars, where we know which fuel the engine requires, we never know in advance what unexpected side effects might be caused by the fuel we feed our models with. Sometimes we increase the fuel's octane number (bias correction) to achieve better performance and find out that the model behaves differently but not always as was expected or desired. This study investigates the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile catchment using two model ensembles consisting of five global CMIP5 Earth system models and 10 regional climate models (CORDEX Africa). WATCH forcing data were used to calibrate an eco-hydrological model and to bias-correct both model ensembles using slightly differing approaches. On the one hand it was found that the bias correction methods considerably improved the performance of average rainfall characteristics in the reference period (1970–1999) in most of the cases. This also holds true for non-extreme discharge conditions between Q20 and Q80. On the other hand, bias-corrected simulations tend to overemphasize magnitudes of projected change signals and extremes. A general weakness of both uncorrected and bias-corrected simulations is the rather poor representation of high and low flows and their extremes, which were often deteriorated by bias correction. This inaccuracy is a crucial deficiency for regional impact studies dealing with water management issues and it is therefore important to analyse model performance and characteristics and the effect of bias correction, and eventually to exclude some climate models from the ensemble. However, the multi-model means of all ensembles project increasing average annual discharges in the Upper Blue Nile catchment and a shift in seasonal patterns, with decreasing discharges in June and July and increasing discharges from August to November.

Details

show
hide
Language(s):
 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 8069
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Model / method: SWIM
Regional keyword: Africa
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 22 (4) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 2163 - 2185 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals208