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  Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios

Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Guo, Y., Sera, F., Huber, V., Schleussner, C.-F., Mitchell, D., Tong, S., Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. d., Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, P., Lavigne, E., Matus Correa, P., Valdes Ortega, N., Kan, H., Osorio, S., Kysely, J., Urban, A., Jaakkola, J. J. K., Ryti, N. R. I., Pascal, M., Goodman, P. G., Zeka, A., Michelozzi, P., Scortichini, M., Hashizume, M., Honda, Y., Hurtado-Diaz, M., Cruz, J., Seposo, X., Kim, H., Tobias, A., Iniguez, C., Forsberg, B., Oudin Aström, D., Ragettli, M. S., Röösli, M., Guo, Y. L., Wu, C.-f., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Bell, M. L., Dang, T. N., Van, D. D., Heaviside, C., Vardoulakis, S., Hajat, S., Haines, A., Armstrong, B., Ebi, K. L., Gasparrini, A. (2018): Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios. - Climatic Change, 150, 3-4, 391-402.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3

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Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.1, Author
Guo, Y.1, Author
Sera, F.1, Author
Huber, Veronika2, Author              
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich2, Author              
Mitchell, D.1, Author
Tong, S.1, Author
Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. de1, Author
Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, P.1, Author
Lavigne, E.1, Author
Matus Correa, P.1, Author
Valdes Ortega, N.1, Author
Kan, H.1, Author
Osorio, S.1, Author
Kysely, J.1, Author
Urban, A.1, Author
Jaakkola, J. J. K.1, Author
Ryti, N. R. I.1, Author
Pascal, M.1, Author
Goodman, P. G.1, Author
Zeka, A.1, AuthorMichelozzi, P.1, AuthorScortichini, M.1, AuthorHashizume, M.1, AuthorHonda, Y.1, AuthorHurtado-Diaz, M.1, AuthorCruz, J.1, AuthorSeposo, X.1, AuthorKim, H.1, AuthorTobias, A.1, AuthorIniguez, C.1, AuthorForsberg, B.1, AuthorOudin Aström, D.1, AuthorRagettli, M. S.1, AuthorRöösli, M.1, AuthorGuo, Y. L.1, AuthorWu, C.-f.1, AuthorZanobetti, A.1, AuthorSchwartz, J.1, AuthorBell, M. L.1, AuthorDang, T. N.1, AuthorVan, D. D.1, AuthorHeaviside, C.1, AuthorVardoulakis, S.1, AuthorHajat, S.1, AuthorHaines, A.1, AuthorArmstrong, B.1, AuthorEbi, K. L.1, AuthorGasparrini, A.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 8210
Research topic keyword: Health
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Cities
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Climate & Energy Policies
 Degree: -

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Title: Climatic Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 150 (3-4) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 391 - 402 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals80